After D.C. got hit hard this past weekend with over two feet of snow, a lot of New England winter weather enthusiasts are thirstier than ever after seeing no snow.  Well those of you in the NYC tri-state region extending into all of Connecticut, Long Island and the rest of southern New England, you are about to get yours!

A very intense Albert Clipper is currently leaving the Ohio Valley after dumping 6+ inches of snow over Cincinnati and other areas.  This system is expected to reach the Mid Atlantic coast by late tonight and very early tomorrow morning.  As that occurs low pressure will form off the Mid Atlantic coast and quickly intensify as it moves slowly northeast.  The combination of intense dynamical forcing and rapid pressure falls at the surface will cause a band of heavy snow to develop from northern New Jersey into the NYC/Long Island region to CT and the rest of southern New England during the day tomorrow.

(Below:  WRF model surface pressures, showing the intense low pressure system off the Mid Atlantic/New England coast Wednesday evening )

WRF model suface pressures valid Wednesday evening.

The latest WRF model is forecasting most areas in the NYC/CT region to receive about 12 inches of snow, with spotty areas receiving over 15 inches!  So by just glancing at the 12z WRF model one would quickly forecast 12+ inches of snow in all areas (see the total WRF precip forecast below).  However the model suggests a warm nose at 850mb from Long Island into coastal CT.  This is associated with the intense warm air advection occurring ahead of the surface low.  This will cause a sleet/snow mix to occur for one to three hours in the late morning to midday timeframe over Long Island and the I-95 corridor in CT.  But the continued dynamical forcing should allow for the mixture to switch back to all snow by midday or the afternoon at the latest.    At any rate this temporary mixing will keep snow accumulations in the 8-10 inch range over NYC, Long Island and the I-95 corridor in CT.  Areas north of the Merritt in CT should receive 12-14 inches of snow, possibly more in isolated areas.

WRF Model total liquid precipitation through Wednesday night

Below:  WRF model sounding for Bridgeport, CT (BDR) valid midday Wednesday.  Notice the warm layer around 850mb, indicative of the strong warm air advection ahead of the surface low.  I’m thinking strong dynamic lift/forcing will overcome this warm advection across interior areas of CT, but along I-95 and over Long Island expect a 1-3 hour window in the late morning to midday timefame when the snow mixes with sleet.  By the afternoon the dynamical forcing will take over and all snow will fall along the coast.

WRF model sounding for Bridgeport, CT valid Wednesday at midday

It looks like I’ll probably be working from home tomorrow in light of the snowstorm.  All I have to say is bring it!!! I may finally see a full foot of snow up here in Shelton.

- Jim