May 312010
 

Thursday, 3 June 2010

My ideas outlined earlier this week look on track.  In fact, some of the computer models (European) are beginning to suggest a series of tornado setups across the central to northern Plains next weekend (June 11-13).  This could be rushing things by a couple days, but the point is the computer models are catching on to things.  Now, I just need a series of good setups to fall on a weekend.  Whether it’s the weekend of June 12, 19 or 26 is irrelevant.  It just needs to be a weekend.

Although, one of the concerns I still have is just how far north the setups will be.  The intense heat over Texas suggests a strong heat ridge will keep troughs from digging too far south.  If anything, most troughs will be forced further north, over the ridge.  So, the concern is the tornado setups will be across the Dakotas into Minnesota and possibly Canada.  However, if enough Pacific energy gets into the pattern (which is quite possible), the troughs will be strong enough to bring setups further south into Nebraska and Iowa.  This may be possible thanks to a strong central Pacific jet, along with the GWO hanging around phases 8/1.

We shall see…

- Jim

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Monday, 31 May 2010

While there have been tornadoes over the last week across the high plains, we have been in a period with a relative lack of significant severe weather outbreaks.  I believe that will change in the June 10-20 period.  This change will be brought on by the MJO becoming re-established over the Indian Ocean (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/mjo/Forecasts/images/bmo.mjo.latest.png).  At the same time the GWO (Global Wind Oscillation) will work with the MJO to make the pattern more conducive for synoptic scale severe weather outbreaks over the Plains.

What  a mouth full!  I’m just trying to say I do not believe the chase season is coming to an end yet.  In fact, quite the contrary.  From what I’m seeing, mid June should light up across the central and northern Plains, with plenty more opportunities for chasers to see significant tornadoes.  For my sake, hopefully one of these setups will occur over a weekend so I have another opportunity to see another tornado this year.  After all, I have numerous airports at my disposal nearby here in CT.  All I need now is a good Saturday tornado setup!

- Jim